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Could Stocks Soar in the Second Half of ’24?

Six more months! Six more months!?

Investors cheered as stocks ended the second quarter up 4.3% and 15.3% for the first six months of 2024. That’s the best first-half performance during an election year on record. We also saw the second-largest quarterly outperformance of growth stocks (9.6%) over value stocks (-2.1%) in the last 30 years, driven largely by AI-themed mega-caps.

July is a hot month for stocks, historically. But what might the second half of the year have in store for investors?

Since 1995, there have been nine instances where the S&P 500 has gained more than 10% during the first half of the year. Here’s what happened next:

• Stocks rose another 10.6% on average from July through December
• Stocks delivered positive second-half returns 100% of the time (9 out of the 9 instances)

The upshot: based on history, there’s a good chance stocks will end 2024 higher than where they stand today. Indeed, over the past 35 years, buying stocks when the market hits a new high has worked out better on average for investors than when they’re investing on days picked at random. If the interest rate environment moves lower in the coming months—core PCE inflation slowed to 2.6% in May—it could provide an additional boost to equity prices.

Of course, the future is unknown. But investors with cash on the sidelines may want to consider paying attention to what history has to say about the stock market’s possible path between now and December.

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Disclosure

Securities and Investment Advisory Services offered through Founders Financial Securities, LLC. Member FINRA, SIPC and Registered Investment Advisor.

This material contains the opinions of the author(s) but not necessarily those of Founders Financial Securities, LLC and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and does not take into account your specific investment objectives or financial situation. The information is not intended as investment advice and is not a recommendation. Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and cannot protect against losses in a declining market. Both past performance and yield may not be a reliable guide to future performance and yield. If you are seeking information regarding particular investment needs please contact a financial professional. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Risk Assist® is NOT A GUARANTEE against loss or declines in the value of your portfolio; it is a strategy that accompanies Founders Financial’s investment strategies. Founders Financial’s investment strategies are subject to risk including, general market risk, currency fluctuations, and economic conditions. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed.

Certain materials above are produced by Horizon Investments, LLC, which is not affiliated with the advisory firm identified on the front page. © 2024 Horizon Investments, LLC

The strategies may not be appropriate for all investors. A strategy’s investments may increase your vulnerability to any single economic, political, or regulatory development; fixed income investments, which are subject to interest rate risk; high yield (“junk”) bonds, which are subject to greater credit and market risks; small and mid-cap stocks, which may be subject to more erratic market movements than large-cap stocks; foreign and emerging market securities, which are subject to currency fluctuation and political uncertainty.. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. There is no guarantee a strategy’s objective will be achieved.

The strategies presented are NOT A GUARANTEE against loss or declines in the value of your portfolio.